War Between Gangs and Government has Ecuador Under Martial Law

Newly elected President Noboa is facing war with narco-leaders in Ecuador. Fito, the nation’s most wanted narco-leader, escaped incarceration ahead of anticipated prison reforms and increased security measures. Seven prison facilities then experienced violence resulting in 172 guards taken hostage, 41 have been released and one killed. Other acts of violence included the armed hold-up of an on-air news network. Ecuador’s lucrative narcotic exports have gangs attempting to prevent reform through intimidation. Fito remains at large and the situation ongoing.

The situations risks (1) continued mass migrations from Ecuador, limiting national capabilities (2) fueling increased drug trafficking to American and European markets (3) asylum surges to America from Ecuador, already a hot button issue.

The mass migration from Ecuador due to spikes in crime, drug trafficking, and gang violence threaten the nation’s long-term viability. Citizens fleeing for safety reduce the potential productivity of the nation and its capabilities to fight narco-actors, becoming a self-fulfilling cycle. The nation has seen its homicide rate skyrocket over the past decades, previously regarded as one of the region’s most peaceful and prosperous nations.

Ecuador’s leadership in Banana exports provides cartels a haven to transport cocaine, feeding North American and European markets. Last year the Netherlands and Belgium had trouble incinerating the volumes of cocaine they were seizing at ports. The drug trade enriches cartels, who further fuel America’s overdose epidemic. A power vacuum in Ecuador with lasting instability would fuel increased drug smuggling in North America and Europe.

The U.S. has offered law enforcement, intelligence, and prison security support in efforts to quell the situation; the potential mass migration event comes as the U.S. enters an election cycle with immigration policy at the forefront. The release of over $60bn in U.S. aid to Ukraine is being used as a bargaining chip for lawmakers to pass boarder reform. Washington is hoping to help contain the situation as best it can. Noboa has welcomed U.S. support in fighting cartels.